• Monthly House View - November 2025 - Download here [ENG]
• Monthly House View - November 2025 - Download here [CN]

As the precious Crown Jewels, a resplendent symbol of the French monarchy, vanish in a spectacular heist at the Louvre – already being dubbed the “heist of the century” – France finds itself at an unprecedented juncture: the imprisonment, for the very first time, of a former President of the Republic. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, as the winds of populism continue to sweep across the globe, the United States is witnessing an unparalleled wave of social movements. At the end of October, nearly seven million Americans took to the streets as part of the “No Kings” protest, condemning the authoritarian tendencies of Donald Trump. Despite this massive outcry, the president remains defiant, taking the unilateral decision to demolish the East Wing of the White House and convert it into a ballroom.
Kings have long been associated with gold, a timeless emblem of power and wealth. In fact, the Oval Office, recently gilded by the White House’s current resident, has raised a few eyebrows. Yet in 2025, it is gold itself that reigns supreme. With a historic record of over 4’300 dollars per ounce in October, the precious metal has surged by an impressive 50% since the start of the year, claiming the top spot in financial performance rankings for 2025.
But what exactly is driving this meteoric rise in the price of gold? First and foremost, its status as a safe-haven asset has been bolstered by mounting government debt and the prolonged budgetary impasse in the United States, which is now the second-longest in its history. More fundamentally, gold serves as a hedge against growing concerns over a potential loss of independence – and, by extension, credibility – of the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed), which could arise from the anticipated change in its leadership next year. Traditionally seen as a bulwark against inflation, gold has also benefited from the rise of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have democratised access to the asset for a broader range of investors. Lastly, central banks across emerging economies are continuing to shore up their gold reserves, reducing their reliance on the dollar amidst a persistently tense geopolitical climate.

The underlying question, however, is just how long governments can continue living beyond their means. Following the COVID-19 pandemic and the era of “whatever it takes” policies, the sobering reality is that public debt in developed economies now stands at an average of 110% of gross domestic product (GDP) – a level not witnessed since the Napoleonic Wars.
So how can we cure an ailing global economy, paralysed by excessive debt? The prescription appears clear, requiring three key ingredients. First, a dose of inflation. Second, a measure of financial repression, or other mechanisms to steer financial market participants towards government bonds, which would help keep interest rates artificially low. Here, it is worth pausing to consider the case of stablecoins¹. The leading dollar-pegged stablecoin, Tether, was the seventh-largest buyer of US Treasury bills last year, ahead of Canada. It now holds close to 130 billion dollars in T-bills²!
Lastly, the third and arguably most vital component of the remedy is growth. The good news is that we are revising global growth forecasts upwards for 2025 and 2026, as outlined in this edition. The resilience of the US domestic market has been a key driver thus far. As economist Robert Shiller demonstrates in his work on “narrative economics”, if consumers remain believers in the “American Dream” – a concept that is not always rational – they will continue to spend. Furthermore, growth is being fuelled by record investments in artificial intelligence (AI).
In this issue, we will also take a closer look at the evolving dynamics of the US labour market and, as always, share our convictions on asset allocation.

¹ Stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable value by being pegged to a tangible asset, such as a fiat currency (e.g. the US dollar).
² A T-bill (Treasury bill) is a short-term government debt instrument issued by the United States to finance its cash flow needs.

Important information

_{Monthly House View, 24.10.2025. - Excerpt of the Editorial}